We tracked the undecided races of the 2024 election

Like other Democratic Senate candidates running in key presidential swing states, Casey touted his moderate, even Trump-aligned, credentials on the campaign trail and has outperformed Harris (as well as other Democrats in statewide races). But, if current race standings hold, he could be the only one of those swing-state Democratic candidates to lose. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan have both been projected to win their races in states that Trump carried. Meanwhile, Sen. Jacky Rosen and Rep. Ruben Gallego are also holding onto leads in the U.S. Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, respectively, despite Trump leading in both states.

In some cases, it may be more accurate to say that Republican candidates underperformed Trump, more than Democrats overperformed Harris. For example, in Pennsylvania, Harris is netting around 36,000 more votes than Casey, while Trump has over 140,000 more votes than McCormick — that means Trump voters weren't necessarily splitting their tickets to support Casey, but sitting out the downballot races completely. Much will surely be said in coming days and weeks about this ticket-splitting and what it may mean for both parties' strategies going forward.

As Nathaniel noted earlier, Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race is coming down to the wire with some uncertainty over how many outstanding votes are still remaining. The Pennsylvania Department of State has clarified that there are at least 100,000 total ballots left to be counted.

McCormick's lead currently stands at around 33,000 votes, suggesting that — based on that outstanding vote estimate — Casey has a narrow path if he wins a little over two-thirds of the outstanding votes. And notably, this race could be headed for an automatic recount, which would be triggered under state rules if the margin of victory is 0.5% or less. McCormick is sitting just under that threshold right now.

ABC News projects that Democrat Eugene Vindman, an Army veteran and Trump whistleblower, will win the open-seat race in Virginia's 7th District, defeating Derrick Anderson. Readers may remember that Anderson, a former Army Green Beret, made news when campaign photos of him posing with his friend's wife and children emerged. The campaign didn't use the images, but there was speculation that because Anderson is single (he is now engaged), these photos were orchestrated to soften his image.

Vindman's win means Democrats will retain this blue-leaning seat currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who chose not to run in favor of running for governor in 2025.

The AP has called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican Dave McCormick. However, ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in the race.

As Geoffrey wrote yesterday, this seems to boil down to a question about how many ballots remain to be counted in Pennsylvania. Edison Research — from which ABC gets its election results — estimates that there are about 123,000 votes left to count in Philadelphia alone. But according to the Pennsylvania Department of State, only 99 precincts are not reporting statewide, and only 36,000 mail ballots are still uncounted (including 9,000 in Philadelphia).

McCormick currently leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey 48.9% to 48.5%, or a margin of almost 32,000 votes.