Plummeting satellites could alter Earth’s atmosphere
More than 60 years have passed since the first satellite was launched into space, sparking an international space race that brought historic missions and a dramatic rise in the number of objects circling our planet. Today, we rely on thousands of satellites for communication, navigation and research. But as their numbers continue to skyrocket, so do concerns about the growing volume of space debris and its potential impacts.
The number of satellites in low Earth orbit, where most are found, is expected to surge in the coming years, growing from thousands to tens of thousands over the next 15 years, according to the Government Accountability Office. While most of these satellites burn up as they plummet back to Earth, some of the particles they leave behind in the atmosphere could have lasting effects as their numbers increase.
Falling pieces of space debris often attract attention, but little is known about the aerosols produced during reentry vaporization and their impacts on Earth’s atmosphere. For example, aluminum, one of the most widely used materials in satellite construction, vaporizes during reentry and forms alumina particles, which can accumulate in the atmosphere.
A recent study in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres explored what some of these impacts might be and when they could begin to have a notable effect. Researchers simulated how clouds of alumina vapor could impact Earth’s middle and upper atmosphere, finding that the amount of alumina from plummeting satellites would eventually be significant enough to alter conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere, which are both part of the middle atmosphere.

According to the study, by 2040, there could be enough alumina in the stratosphere to influence temperatures and wind speeds in the polar regions, potentially affecting both the ozone layer and the polar vortex over the Arctic and Antarctic. Their results show alumina particles could heat the middle atmosphere near Earth’s poles by about 1.5 degrees Celsius, potentially reducing wind speeds in the Southern Hemisphere’s polar vortex by about 10 percent.
Previous research has shown that a weaker polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere can promote warmer and drier weather conditions across eastern Australia, increasing the threat of dangerous wildfires during the spring and summer months.
Researchers speculate this may also help shrink the ozone hole over the South Pole each year, though the precise relationship between alumina and ozone chemistry remains unclear. Researchers note that some reentry scenarios also showed the opposite effect in the Northern Hemisphere, with possible strengthening of the polar vortex.
While more research is needed to fully understand how increasing space debris may affect Earth’s weather and climate, this study underscores the importance of investigating these potential impacts as our gateway to space becomes increasingly crowded.
-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck







