Climate and environment updates: 7 key measures of Earth's health in danger, report warns

In 2024, the planet achieved an unwanted milestone when it broke the mark for the warmest year on record. Unfortunately, that record isn't likely to last long. According to a new forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years.

The organization's annual update to its decadal climate report shows an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will set a new annual global temperature record. It also warns that the planet is increasingly at risk of officially surpassing the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold established in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

Last year was also the first calendar year in which the planet's global average surface temperature measured 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. WMO estimates an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed this threshold.

The WMO also projects that the five-year warming average for the entire period of 2025 to 2029 is likely to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. While this is a troubling trend, surpassing the threshold over a single year or even five years is not considered a failure to meet the Paris Agreement, as climate averages are analyzed over multiple decades. However, the latest findings show that a sustained breach of that climate threshold is becoming increasingly likely.

The report's authors emphasize that every additional fraction of a degree of warming is significant. Present-day warming is already driving more harmful heat waves, extreme rainfall events and rising sea levels, impacts that are expected to intensify as the planet continues to warm.

"We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

The Arctic region is warming significantly faster than the global average, making it a key area of concern, according to the report. Over the next five extended winters, from November to March, the average temperature anomaly in the Arctic is expected to be more than three and a half times greater than the global average recorded from 1991 to 2020.

Recent La Niña conditions across the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean make it very unlikely that 2025 will break last year's global temperature record. However, as the WMO report notes, these pauses typically don't last long. Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions from human activity will continue to drive long-term warming, threatening global temperature records for many years to come.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck

Drought and extreme heat frequently coincide, drying out vegetation, which can lead to agricultural losses and increase the risk of wildfires. While previous studies have shown extreme heat can worsen drought conditions, much less is known about how drought might influence a heat event.

However, new research funded by NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System has found drought doesn't just accompany heat, it can actually extend the duration of heat waves when the two overlap.

Researchers used air temperature, soil moisture and soil temperature data from dozens of weather stations across the country to examine the influence of drought on heat wave intensity, duration and human exposure to extreme heat. They found that the presence of drought conditions increased the average duration of heat waves by 12 to 48 hours at two-thirds of the stations analyzed in the recently published study in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

While heat waves are more likely to coincide with drought in the western U.S., the study found that even in the eastern part of the country, heat waves occurring during drought conditions led to higher daily maximum temperatures. One likely driver of this connection is soil moisture. The researchers observed that dry soils not only suppress local evapotranspiration but can also retain more heat. That stored heat is then released into the atmosphere, contributing to elevated air temperatures.

According to the researchers, when a heat wave and drought overlap, people face a heightened risk of heat exposure due to both higher temperatures and longer periods of heat. The study's authors suggest improved monitoring of soil moisture and temperature could lead to more accurate assessments of the wide-ranging impacts of extreme heat, including threats to public health and agriculture, as well as elevated wildfire risk.

Much of the Plains and Southwest are beginning meteorological summer, which starts June 1, under widespread drought conditions. According to the latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 90% of Nebraska is experiencing a drought, while more than 60% of Arizona is facing an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). These regions are likely to see near- or below-average precipitation in June, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck

Despite the Trump administration's desire to roll back incentives, adoption goals and funding for electric vehicle (EV) programs and charging stations in the United States, there appears to be no stopping the forward momentum of EV sales throughout the world.

According to a new analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), EV sales will account for one-quarter of the new cars sold worldwide by the end of 2025. The IEA says electric car sales will surpass 20 million units. That would mark a significant increase over 2024 when customers purchased 17 million EVs.

China continues to lead the world when it comes to EV adoption. Nearly half of all the cars sold last year in China were electric. The country can now boast that 1 in 10 cars on the road is an EV. Electric vehicle sales grew by nearly 10% in the United States, but the IEA anticipates a slowdown in EV adoption in the U.S. due to what the agency calls "today's policy direction." The agency significantly slashed its estimate for U.S. EV sales by more than half compared to last year. The IEA now forecasts that the sales share of EVs in the U.S. will grow by 20% by 2030.

But it's a very different story across the globe. The IEA anticipates that more than 40% of cars sold worldwide will be electric by 2030. China is expected to hit 80%, and Europe's share should be close to 60%. The IEA says Asia and Latin America are also becoming the new centers of growth for EV sales and adoption, accounting for 40% of global new vehicle sales.

In terms of charging, the IEA says it's a mixed bag. While public charging stations have doubled globally in the last two years in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, the agency says public charger build-outs are not keeping pace with EV adoption. In comparison, the report cites China and the European Union as two regions that are keeping up with charger deployment and construction.

The IEA says the shift from gas-powered cars and trucks to EVs means the world will need less oil. By 2030, battery-powered EVs are expected to replace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day. However, they warn that lower gas prices could affect EV sales, as could potentially higher electric vehicle prices resulting from tariffs.

-ABC News' climate and weather unit's Matthew Glasser

More than 60 years have passed since the first satellite was launched into space, sparking an international space race that brought historic missions and a dramatic rise in the number of objects circling our planet. Today, we rely on thousands of satellites for communication, navigation and research. But as their numbers continue to skyrocket, so do concerns about the growing volume of space debris and its potential impacts.

The number of satellites in low Earth orbit, where most are found, is expected to surge in the coming years, growing from thousands to tens of thousands over the next 15 years, according to the Government Accountability Office. While most of these satellites burn up as they plummet back to Earth, some of the particles they leave behind in the atmosphere could have lasting effects as their numbers increase.

Falling pieces of space debris often attract attention, but little is known about the aerosols produced during reentry vaporization and their impacts on Earth’s atmosphere. For example, aluminum, one of the most widely used materials in satellite construction, vaporizes during reentry and forms alumina particles, which can accumulate in the atmosphere.

A recent study in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres explored what some of these impacts might be and when they could begin to have a notable effect. Researchers simulated how clouds of alumina vapor could impact Earth’s middle and upper atmosphere, finding that the amount of alumina from plummeting satellites would eventually be significant enough to alter conditions in the stratosphere and mesosphere, which are both part of the middle atmosphere.

According to the study, by 2040, there could be enough alumina in the stratosphere to influence temperatures and wind speeds in the polar regions, potentially affecting both the ozone layer and the polar vortex over the Arctic and Antarctic. Their results show alumina particles could heat the middle atmosphere near Earth’s poles by about 1.5 degrees Celsius, potentially reducing wind speeds in the Southern Hemisphere’s polar vortex by about 10 percent.

Previous research has shown that a weaker polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere can promote warmer and drier weather conditions across eastern Australia, increasing the threat of dangerous wildfires during the spring and summer months.

Researchers speculate this may also help shrink the ozone hole over the South Pole each year, though the precise relationship between alumina and ozone chemistry remains unclear. Researchers note that some reentry scenarios also showed the opposite effect in the Northern Hemisphere, with possible strengthening of the polar vortex.

While more research is needed to fully understand how increasing space debris may affect Earth’s weather and climate, this study underscores the importance of investigating these potential impacts as our gateway to space becomes increasingly crowded.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck